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Recap & Week Ahead – Well my friends, we have now reached the middle of September already. In two months the NCAAF season will basically be over and NCAAB will be upon us. As Ferris Bueller once said, “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” The weekends can be intense. Be sure to step back during the week to recharge and clear your head for the weekend to come.
The second week of the football season performed well once again! In the free content on Twitter & Telegram, +EV sharp reports went 2-2 and the Book Need on Texas +21 was an easy winner. The 1st Quarter NFL algorithm lost in the opening week. Here in the TSP Live Newsletter, selections went 2-1 as the Algorithm and My Handicapping remain perfect on the season, but the Early Buy went down.
In TSP Live, I cashed my futures ticket on Alcaraz +600 for a +5 unit profit on the US Open. I gave some of those profits back on two teasers and a parlay. The TSP Live Radar went 13-9 overall for +3.1 units. All angles on the KB Consensus are now 8-3-1 on the season with the 60%+ angles going 1-1-1 this week, 2-1 if you buy the hook on 7 (Always advised). The “known” bettor I am tracking for NCAAF is now 2-0, nothing from the bettor we are tracking in NFL yet (only above average wagers are reported). The Book Needs went 3-2 for +0.8 units with High Level needs going 1-1 for the weekend. The In-Play Analytic went 3-3 for -0.3 units. There were no Premium or Just Missed Premium Plays, but all angles on the Top Sharp Consensus table went 2-1 for +1.7 units. For the Oddsmaker’s Report, there were no Group Buys or Book Positions, but sharp props went 2-0, fading public props went 1-1, an unusual sharp buy on UNLV cashed, six figure action from a betting broker on Washington/Jacksonville OV43 cashed! All in all, a winning week! Let’s do it again this week!
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Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (0-2-0 for -2.2 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along and let’s see what happens.
For the week ahead, the largest early buy is on Nebraska +11 over Oklahoma. Sharp money has hammered this one from Nebraska +14 down to +11 and there is sharp money even at that low price. I mean, I get Oklahoma may be looked at as underwhelming, but Nebraska is awful. Perhaps they are playing the new coach angle. I don’t know, but I am kind of shocked by the intensity of this buy. Volume is low (that’s why it is not on TSP Live Radar yet), but it is all sharp money on Nebraska.
Early Algorithm Look (2-0-0 for +2.0 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing strong value on Bowling Green +17 (Bookmaker/Heritage) over Marshall. The Marshall performance against Notre Dame is giving them a lot of street cred. However, I don’t think ND is anything special this year (sorry Irish fans). So, I think we are seeing Marshall overly inflated by that performance and now going against “lowly” Bowling Green. Due to this, the oddsmakers are shading Marshall and therein lies the value. Algorithm has this price at Marshall -14 and the current price is -17…giving 3 points of value to Bowling Green.
My Handicapping (2-0 for +2.0 units) – I got the win last week taking Houston +7.5. Let’s see if I can stay perfect on the season this week.
I am going with Denver -10 over Houston. I took Houston this past week and got the win as the Texans tied the Colts! However, Houston did not really look good in that game. The Colts had 517 yards against Houston’s 299. In a normal situation (using yards divided by 15 to calculate expected points) this would mean a Colts win 34-20…and I would have lost on Houston +7.5. Thankfully the Colts underperformed and Houston over performed. At the same time everyone saw Denver look like trash on Monday night. I think Denver looking like trash was due to the lack of preseason reps for the starters. Denver did move the ball well but early rust and bad play calling cost them the game. The Denver defense played well and the offense moved the ball great…except within the 5 yard line. I think the Broncos will have no problem against the Texans and will light them up!
My Two Cents – I touched on the following topic above in the “Recap” section along with a couple times on other platforms today (TSP Live Insider, TSP Live Memo), but it is often overlooked by a lot of gamblers.
I don’t know about you, but after a weekend of day and night football, plus other sports coverage and then capped off by Monday Night Football, my brain is mush. From Thursday through Monday night, I have looked at so many markets, so many lines, tracked so much information that I am both physically and mentally exhausted. My body is ready to crash. Gambling, especially on a daily basis is INTENSE and that’s outside football season. During the football season when all the action is packed into two days a week…the effects are even more intense.
As gamblers we aren’t on the field, but the process of analyzing the numbers, handicapping the content and action, monitoring the prices, monitoring the scores, sweating the ups and downs of the games, getting annoyed, being elated with a win…it all takes a toll on you. A toll few gamblers recognize.
So, what’s the problem? Gambling requires you to be at the top of your mental game to succeed. You have a lot to assess when handicapping. If you are not at the top of your game, the results will show in your wagering performance (wins and losses). Which then will make your physical and mental situation worse as frustrations will mount. Until you take a break and reset your brain, clear your head and rest the body a little…it won’t get better. We all know how much emotion in betting can destroy the best of gamblers. So, give yourself a break!
Gamblers hate to take breaks because they always have FOMO…fear of missing out. If I pass here on Tuesday, I might miss a great 3-0 night with the plays I like. Sure…you might….but it is likely that more often than not you will miss out on losses as opposed to wins.
If you are having a bad run, if you are having a good run, if you are betting daily…be sure to work some “mental health” days into your betting. When I take mine this week, I will be kicking back…away from the PC and doing some reading. That’s all that will be on my mind. Get away from sports, betting, markets, prices and wagers. Let my body recharge and clear my mind of all the random sports gambling tidbits that are floating around from the past weekend. Do something you find fun or relaxing. Even if it is just to watching TV (NO SPORTS!!) or sitting outside and watching the wind blow. Do something OTHER than sports gambling for at least one day a week.
As a degenerate, I know it isn’t easy…but trust me, you will be shocked by the results. You will less stress and see the big picture more clearly! Gambling is a marathon, not a non-stop sprint.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays