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Recap & Week Ahead – We have come to the final week of the TSP Newsletter. I don’t publish a TSP Newsletter for the last week of the NFL season simply because so much is up in the air during the week. What teams are motivated, which teams are not, who is playing, who will sit halfway through a game once the team’s future is decided by the results of another game, etc. So, that’s why the second last week of the NFL regular season is the last week for the TSP Newsletter each year. The other part is at this point of the football season I am running on some serious fumes!
Looking back on the past season, it has been another wild and fun run in 2022! I thank you for joining me and I hope you have enjoyed the ride. The funny part is we will blink our eyes and it will be August 2023 and we will be on the verge of yet another football season of action…all ready for the euphoric highs and the abyssal lows! We do love it though don’t we? The ups and downs? As gamblers we are gluttons for punishment.
So, as we wrap up another season, I thought it was a good time to look back on the 2022-23 football season thus far. Yesterday, I put together a full performance breakdown in TSP Live Insider. If you missed that update, you can check out the season recap from yesterday at anytime by visiting…https://tsp.live/tsp-live-insider-12-26/. It breaks down all the paid and free content for the 2022-23 football season from August 31st through December 25th.
Without further delay, let’s get to this week’s action!
If you are looking for expanded sports content, don’t forget to check out TSP Live! Signup at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus (31-12-3 on the season), the Oddsmaker’s Report and more (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)! On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides discussion of strategy, early sharp buys, the occasional exotic (teaser/parlay/rollover) and more! It’s the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +37.6% using passive targets and +50.5% using aggressive targets! Seven of my last eight options trades have cashed for an average ROI per position of just over 100%!! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup or for more details, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels (Sports, Trading & Twitter)! For details on each channel and how to join them, visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (10-7-1 for +2.3 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.
The Early Sharp Buy of Las Vegas +3 ended up being essential as it got the PUSH, versus the loss on the closing number of +2.5! For the week ahead, the early sharp buy is on NY Jets -2 over Seattle.
Early Algorithm Look (13-4-0 for +8.6 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
Algorithm cashed again last week with Carolina +2.5 in an easy one! For the week ahead it is showing value on Las Vegas +6 over San Francisco. The algorithm is showing this price should be Las Vegas +3 and we are getting +6…thanks in large part to the Raiders meltdown this past weekend. So, I will grab the 3 points of value. Let’s Go Raiders!
My Handicapping (7-11-0 for -5.2 units) – The Zach Wilson Jets suck! So, I am currently down -4.2 units. The only way I can get to a profit now is by taking a parlay shot on the last week of the newsletter. So, if that is what must be done, then that is what I shall do!
I am going with the My Handicapping BAILOUT PARLAY OF THE YEAR (LOL)…a 1 unit, three leg parlay of NY Jets -2, Las Vegas +6 and I am tying them with Buffalo -1. The resulting parlay will payoff at +595 and thereby return a MUCH NEEDED profit of +6.0 units. If I lose, it’ll be a -5.2 unit finish for the My Handicapping section. I will be the drag on an otherwise very successful season of the TSP Newsletter as the Early Sharp Buy and the Algorithm delivered. Here’s to finishing the season with the SWEEP!!!!!
Why Buffalo? Yes, I do have a place in my heart for Dawson Knox. The guy has turned me a healthy profit simply betting him to cash the 1st TD of each game he plays. The real reason for picking Buffalo though is the Bengals. Why dey?? Dey overrated! Yes, the Bengals have gone on a winning streak and everyone is high on them. However, let’s look under the hood. Here’s who the Bengals have beat in order of most recent…
New England – Really should have lost this game due to 2nd Half ineptitude, but got some favorable officiating at the end of the game, and a bunch of missed XP chances by NE.
Tampa Bay – Seriously?? TB almost lost to ARIZONA!
Cleveland – I am not even going to comment on how pathetic Cleveland is.
Kansas City – Valid win…they just seem to have KC’s number. Bills beat KC too so…
Tennessee – Finally exposed in recent weeks
Steelers – Needed the ghost of Franco Harris to bring out a comeback drive to beat the shitty Raiders. Was Trubisky playing this game??
Carolina – Hardly anything special.
Cleveland again…oh no…this is when the Browns actually BEAT the Bengals…yes, those same pathetic Browns.
So seriously, other than KC, what quality team did the Bengals beat? Nobody. I think the house of cards will be blown over by the Buffalo attack. The Bills are for real. They haven’t been pretty in recent weeks, but they got the job done and the win. All they need to do here is get the win for them to cover. I don’t see how the Bengals will compete with the Bills on offense. Cincy might hang for a little, but that Buffalo pressure is going to get to Burrow and the Bills offense will light up the Bengals defense.
I am going with Buffalo -1 to complete the My Handicapping Three Leg Bailout Parlay of the Year!!!!!!!!!! Let’s have some fun this last week of the season!
The Sharp Plays Review – I thought it would be fun to put together some reviews on travel, products, services and more throughout the year.
No new reviews this week, but if you want to peruse my previous review musings, you can check them at…
Atlantis – Paradise Island, Bahamas
Where Has The Magic Gone (Walt Disney World)?
Royal Caribbean – Almost 20 Years Later
The feedback on the reviews has been awesome and I am glad you enjoyed reading them as much as I did in putting them together. More reviews will be on the way in 2023!! I hope you will enjoy those as well!
My Two Cents – Well my friends, WTF?!?! Week #18 of the TSP Newsletter? Another season concluded? Christmas is over and New Year’s Day is almost here?? Where does the time go?!? Weren’t we venting that preseason game where the Colts blew it against Buffalo just last week? Come on…that was already four months ago?!?! GTFOH!!!! LOL
Yep, here we are, two weeks left of the NFL season and then it’s the playoffs. We are in the midst of the big week of bowl action and then NCAAF will basically be over. The good news is, if you are reading this…YOU SURVIVED!
As is the case with any sports season, there have been some wonderful highs and some torturous lows. In the end, the good outweighed the bad, and regardless of the performance of the last weeks of the season…TSP Live put together another winning football season (https://tsp.live/tsp-live-insider-12-26)! It definitely was not as pretty as last season…where we got over 100 units throughout all the content, but I won’t be too upset with 70-80+ units of profit when the dust settles! The losing content this season (so far) were the Book Positions (going 3-7 for -4.7 units) and Group Buys (6-6 for -0.6 units). Definite disappointment to see Book Positions go 3-7 after a 63%+ run coming in since last September (2021). There’s always going to be some content that doesn’t perform/disappoints…and Book Positions were the case this season. The winning content thankfully…thus far…has been everything else. The major highlights on the winning side of TSP Live content include the football TSP Live Radar for +20.9 units, the KB Consensus for a 31-13 record and +16.9 units, the new Action Alerts (known bettor content which launched in November) for +9.8 units, Book Needs for +19.0 units, Public Prop Fade for +10.2 units, and my parlays at +8.7 units so far this season! There was more winning in TSP Live (check the link above) but these are a few of the highlights.
When I go into a season I never know where my profits will come. I tell the same story every football season (and multiple times throughout) about the year where I lost money in September, October, and November. Then, thanks to a massive December in the bowls and NFL, I absolutely killed it! I cleaned up enough in that December to cover all my losses from the prior three months and turned a solid profit…thanks to one big month! It shows the importance of bankroll management so you can ride the downs to be there to profits from the ups! If you bet 10 units on each Book Position this season and passed everything else, you unfortunately did not have a good season. If you bet 1 unit on Book Positions and Group Buys along with 1 unit on KB Consensus, you are sitting on a nice profit from this season. It’s all about how you manage yourself and the content.
We are days away from another year beginning. There are going to be moments during the year ahead where I am your best friend, there are going to be moments you despise me. It’s the nature of the gambling beast…I understand and will accept your venting.
I don’t know what months nor what content will perform best nor worst in 2023. I wish I did…it would make this whole thing A LOT EASIER!! LOL! What I do know is if you can manage your emotions and your bankroll…avoiding Twitter tantrums because you went too hard on one selection…when you know better…it should be another fun and profitable year when you sit and read Issue #18 of the 2023 TSP Newsletter next year at this time!
The New Year is always a great time to reset and restart. If you did not achieve what you would have liked in your gambling this past year, start fresh on January 1st with a new mindset and a new plan. If I can help, let me know…I am here to assist. If you wager 1 unit on all your bets…whether a Book Position, KB Consensus or a Public Prop Fade…you should do just fine. Be sure you have at least 100 (optimal) units of bankroll set aside to manage the ups and downs. Mathematically, a sharp bettor averaging roughly 3 wagers per day over the course of the year, and a 53% win rate will experience an average drawdown each year of -22 units. Yes, that means every year a sharp bettor will have at least one cold run that AVERAGES (some years better, some years worse) a 22 unit drawdown! So, let’s say you had grown your bankroll to 103 units, then hit the big cold run for the year and when the ice finally melts you are down to 81 units. It’s why if you have a 10-15-20 unit bankroll…you don’t have much success in this business. You can’t weather the INEVITABLE ups and downs. For an excellent statistical article on the topic, visit Pinnacle Sports at https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/drawdowns-in-betting.
In that article the statistical analysis done shows the expected annual drawdowns for a bettor hitting 53% winners (now imagine how bad it gets for a public bettor who hits 50% or worse!!) will range from -18 units to as high as -73 units…with the average being -22 units! It’s not just something made up. It’s all statistics and probability to come to those figures. So, if you think you will get through next year and not experience a major drawdown at some point, you are just setting yourself up for failure. If instead you prepare yourself in advance and accept that you will have a cold run that will cost you 22-30 units…you are ahead of 97% of bettors out there!
I don’t like losing either, but the only way not to lose is not to gamble…and if you are reading this then not gambling is likely not an option for you. So, instead…prepare!! If you go into a cold run prepared, it makes all the difference. If you would like to see what is it like for gamblers who have no bankroll management and see gambling as free money…just check my Twitter feed the next time a Group Buy, Book Position or other TSP Live alert content loses. One loss and people completely lose their shit. Twitter tantrums abound!! Don’t be one of those folks.
Gambling can be A LOT of fun and very low stress IF AND ONLY IF you accept that losing is inevitable, that you will have at least one cold streak that will cost you on average 22 units of bankroll in 2023, and you have a 100 unit bankroll to start. If you accept all those requirements, it’s going to be another AWESOME & FUN year of action ahead! If you try to cut corners, if you press and chase, then I will see you among the haters when you realize gambling isn’t just free money…or because a TSP Live Action Alert lost. Gambling doesn’t have to be excessively hard…it’s just that most gamblers make it that way. Put in a little effort, take time, use your brain, have some discipline and it can be an awesome ride!
If TSP content did not win long-term, none of you would be reading this today, there would be no TSP Live, and The Sharp Plays would have faded shortly after in began in 2011. Yet here I am, in 2022 and going stronger than ever! Patience and discipline my friends…it’ll set you apart from every other gambler in the sportsbook!
I hope all of you have a Happy, Healthy & Wealthy New Year!!! I look forward to having more fun, cashing tickets and venting the bad beats with all of you in 2023! Thanks for being a part of the action with me. It really is my pleasure!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays