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Recap & Week Ahead – Well my friends, two more issues of the TSP Newsletter after this one! I don’t do a newsletter the last week of the NFL season because the action is so volatile and it is tough to properly cover selections, action or assess value in algorithms with players sitting and such. Not to mention, I am already running on fumes and looking forward to my February post-Super Bowl recharge! LOL! So, lets get on a big run to end the season!
The news this week was how strong the content performed for the week, the weekend and especially on Sunday! Most of your gambling is done grinding out profits. However, along the way of that grind you have your losing days and then you have your epic days. It is your epic days which give you the love for this business and help you put up with all the anxiety and stress throughout! Sunday provided that release as the content just killed it from beginning to end…6 units of profit on a parlay, hit the teaser, KB Consensus goes 1-0 to move to 30-12-3 on the season, Public Prop Fade moved to 14-4 the L18 (now 14-5 after losing Murray OVER last night), the analytics tables performed well, and I cashed my 1st TD prop with Mike Williams on Sunday night! Couldn’t ask for a better run or finish to the weekend! Now what? I will discuss that in this week’s My Two Cents section!
If you are looking for expanded sports content, don’t forget to check out TSP Live! Signup at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, the Oddsmaker’s Report and more (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)! On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides discussion of strategy, early sharp buys, the occasional exotic (teaser/parlay/rollover) and more! It’s the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +35.1% using passive targets and +54.9% using aggressive targets! My last SEVEN options trades have ALL cashed for a profit of an average of 100%!! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup or for more details, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels (Sports, Trading & Twitter)! For details on each channel and how to join them, visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (9-6-0 for +2.4 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.
The Early Sharp Buy of Tampa Bay +3.5 lost. Boy do the Bucs look ugly! Anyway, for the week ahead, the Early Sharp Buy is on Atlanta +4.
Early Algorithm Look (10-4-0 for +5.6 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
Algorithm did not have a play last week, but this week it did spot value. The algorithm is showing value on Chicago +9. The algorithm calculated this price as Chicago +6.5, so to get 2.5 points of value is decent and you get above two key numbers in 7 and 8. Another ugly one though, like the Colts!
My Handicapping (7-8-0 for -2.0 units) – Thank you Detroit! You saved me from a losing season…so far! As I said above, there are three more issues of TSP Newsletter this season (well, maybe four if I need it to get this section in the green…LOL!). So, I need a perfect 3-0 to finish with a profitable season. Let’s keep the train rolling!
For the week ahead I am going with Seattle +3.5. It’s somewhat ugly, but that’s why I like it. I am also going against the freight train that is the San Francisco 49ers. However, let’s take a look under the hood on this 49ers team. Two weeks ago San Fran thankfully won and covered (KB Consensus wager) against Miami. However, in that game Jimmy G went out and Brock Purdy came in and played good enough to get a win. However, that game was really more about the San Fran defense and Tua’s awful timing. We saw that bad timing by Tua again on Sunday Night Football as he was consistently off target with his receivers. So, did San Fran win…or did Miami beat themselves?
On Sunday, we saw San Francisco beat up a Tampa Bay team that reminds me a lot of Denver. Plenty of offensive talent but they just can’t seem to do anything with it. Tampa was manhandled by San Francisco…but we both saw how bad Tampa looked against New Orleans. Tampa was lucky to get that win against the Saints…they really should have lost…and the Saints aren’t that good! So, I think San Fran is getting too much credit for beating a messed up Tua and then a shell of a team with the Bucs. I am not saying San Fran is bad, I am just saying they are getting a little inflated.
On the other side of the ball we have Seattle, which has really outperformed this season given the expectations after Wilson left. However, on Sunday, Seattle lost to Carolina in what was a bit of a back and forth game after Carolina got the early lead. I think Seattle is getting too big of a discount here and San Fran is getting inflated.
So, it’s one of my favorite setups…overvalued versus undervalued. I think this price at San Francisco -1 was fair on the lookahead. At San Fran -3.5…it’s just too much right now to have the 3 AND the hook! I will take the value and the Seahawks. I could easily see this being a game decided by a field goal, so I would like to have the +3.5 on my side.
The Sharp Plays Review – I thought it would be fun to put together some reviews on travel, products, services and more throughout the year.
Sticking with the travel reviews, for next week I am putting together a review of “Royal Caribbean Cruise Line”. Last time I was on a Royal Caribbean cruise was in the early 2000’s. Since then I have taken Disney Cruises, but never ventured back to Royal Caribbean until recently. It was an enjoyable experience, but of course I had a few thoughts (LOL). I’ll have my thoughts put together for next week and link the article here. In case you are bored and missed last week, my review was about Walt Disney World (click here to read). Enjoy!
My Two Cents – At this point in the season I have cleared out a lot of thoughts and touched on a variety of topics. There is another topic I have all setup for next week. However, this past weekend provided me a topic that I thought would be great to discuss because of how it related to this whole business of gambling. While the topic is timely, I figured I would tackle it today.
This past weekend was a solid performer! Content grabbed a parlay, a teaser, a KB Consensus wager, Public Prop Fade, Group Buy and more…which was on top of a good week coming in! Oh yeah, and Sunday finished with a Book Need/Sharp Buy combo on the LA Chargers AND I cashed my 1st TD prop on Williams +1200!! AWESOME STUFF!! Did you have fun? I hope so! Do you want to thank me? No need, it’s my pleasure…but just do me one favor…REMEMBER IT! Gambling is filled with ups and downs. However, as gamblers we quickly forget the ups when we are faced with the downs.
Like any football season there have been great weekends and awful weekends. Most of the weekends we grind…up or down a few units which when you add it all up provides a nice profit at the end of the season. The problem is, I come across far too many people who, during a losing week or streak, actually believe the content is forever broken and will never win again! Yep…just one losing weekend and 11+ years of success are now all down the tubes…the run is over!! LOL! It is completely irrational. Not to mention, such an attitude puts you into an awful mindset…and can dramatically exacerbate the losses you experience in those moments.
Remember the weekend at the end of October that was similar to this past weekend? Only a few weeks ago in October we had a Sunday that cashed a parlay, multiple straight bets, a teaser AND to cap it off…Dawson Knox got the 1st TD in a Sunday Night Football game against Green Bay. It was very similar to Sunday.
In between this past weekend and the Dawson Knox 1st TD weekend in October there were some losing weekends…and some solid winning weekends too…but thankfully none of the losing weekends this season lost anywhere near the number of units we picked up in the winning ones…and that’s what matters. Last season we printed money during football. The 2022-23 season has definitely required more effort and discipline, but it’s still been a winner! Regardless of how the final weeks go, it’s going to finish as a winning season too thanks to the units that have built up. Which means…TSP content is better than 96% of bettors out there…who will instead have lost money this season.
We are getting ready to start a new year in a few weeks. It’ll be yet another year of TSP content and dare I say it will be another winning one in the end…just like the ELEVEN consecutive years prior. However, there are going to be some very bad days and weeks in 2023. There is likely to be a losing month or two in 2023 as well. I don’t know when it will be, but if we bet smart and disciplined it won’t matter! We will maximize the wins and ride through the losses…grinding all the way. The losses are unavoidable, regardless of what any of the scam artists in this business try to tell you. All you can control in gambling are your emotions and how you handle the losses when they do occur.
When one of those shitty weekends hits, few in that moment will believe that the content will have an epic weekend in the future to MORE THAN make up for it! People just get stuck in the here and now, and feel “I am losing, I forgot what winning is like and I will never win again”. The emotion of losing more money than they should have risked on a wager or set of wagers hits them right in the face. At which point my job becomes similar to consoling a child who left their favorite toy in an airport. You just won’t believe life will get better and the future will be just fine…you can’t think past the here and now.
In 2023, there are going to be weeks you want to have my baby…despite most of you being men. There are going to be weeks you despise everything that is The Sharp Plays and regret ever having found me. Sports betting is not an easy way to make money. Anyone who tells you otherwise is full of shit. Why the hell do we do it? We do it because it’s fun, it’s something that has been a part of most of our DAILY lives for years, and there is nothing like the euphoria that comes after a weekend and Sunday like this past week. No drug can give you that high nor last as long as an epic Sunday of NFL action…or a huge day of March Madness!
So, do me one last favor…as we bask in the glory of another great week and weekend in the long story that is The Sharp Plays, amidst a grinding but profitable football season…soak it in a little! Look back on this season and the various weekends that made it up. Remember those times you hated me and TSP content? OK, think about that for a minute. Remember how you felt in that moment(s)? How do you feel today? When we were in the midst of a losing weekend, you would not listen when I told you that we will have some awesome weekends ahead. You would not listen when I told you that losing is part of the process and can’t be avoided if you want to be a profitable gambler. You thought I lost my touch, the public had found the magic, and sharp money was obsolete.
Ever year, and at the start of every season I have some brief bits of wisdom I wish people would accept. It is simple stuff, there are going to be winning days/weeks/months and losing days/weeks/months. Sports betting is not free money nor a get rich quick scheme. However, if you can accept losing, ride through the losses, manage bankroll, expectations and emotions…you can and will come out ahead at the end of the year. Avoid getting caught up in the day to day of gambling. Always keep the big picture in mind.
As the saying goes…there is no elevator to success, you have to take the stairs. It sucks walking up them, but if it helps…rest assured that I am always right there with you!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays