The following was originally posted in the April 1st issue of TSP Daily Briefing…
I am going to run through every single futures wager that is getting at least small sharp action. Then I will highlight those wagers which are seeing “material” sharp buying. Material sharp buying means directed, consistent and well above average buying. The first list will be huge, the next list (“material buying”) will not be so huge.
AL Central: Chicago WS -185
AL East: NY Yankees +225, Boston +600
AL West: LA Angels +375
NL Central: Cincinnati +1216
NL East: NY Mets +150
NL West: LA Dodgers -262
AL Pennant: Toronto +450, NY Yankees +575, Chicago White Sox +575, Houston +600
NL Pennant: Atlanta +750
World Series: Chicago White Sox +1200, Houston +1400, NY Yankees +1400
AL Cy Young: Cease+1400, Manaea +1600
NL Cy Young: Burnes +900, Buehler +1100, Wheeler +1200, Woodruff +1200
AL MVP: Trout +550
NL MVP: Soto +350
Rookie of the Year: None
Atlanta OV90.5 (-130)
Cincinnati OV73.5 (-125)
Detroit UN78.5 (-105)
Kansas City OV74.5 (-115)
LA Angels OV83.5 (-125)
Milwaukee OV89.5 (-135)
San Diego OV89.5 (+111)
San Francisco UN85.5 (-115)
Seattle OV83.5 (-120)
St Louis UN85.5 (+100)
Tampa Bay UN89.5 (-115)
Toronto UN92.5 (-115)
Material Sharp Buying:
Atlanta OV90.5 (-130) (implied probability 56.52%)
Cincinnati OV73.5 (-125) (implied probability 55.56%)
Toronto UN92.5 (-115) (implied probability (53.49%)
AL West: LA Angels +375 (implied probability 21.05%)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox -185 (implied probability 64.91%)
AL Pennant: Chicago White Sox +575 (implied probability 14.81%)
World Series: Chicago White Sox +1400 (implied probability 6.67%)
Looks like they like the Sox this year…or rather feel the prices at current and opening levels are too high given the Sox’s probability to win these different categories!
I included the implied probabilities to illustrate how sharp money bets futures. For example, let’s say I feel the Chicago White Sox are a longshot to win the World Series. I calculate them as having a 7.41% chance to win. Hardly a lot and it means there is a 92.59% chance they DO NOT win the World Series. However, my 7.41% calculated chance means that the White Sox should carry odds of +1250. I go to my favorite book and find that the White Sox have odds of +1400, meaning the book feels they only have a 6.67% chance to win the World Series. BINGO…that’s a value and a bet I want to make.
Often people feel that if the sharp money is betting something it is because they feel it is going to happen. Reality is that it is all about the probabilities and their connection or disconnection to current prices offered by books…nothing more.
Here’s to a great MLB season! So glad we have one!!
Good luck in your action and here’s to a GREAT MLB season!!