Let’s see what we can do with the 2019 Home Run Derby. I’ll use some advanced analytics in a recipe I created to calculate the win probability for each player in the Derby. First, I ran all the numbers on each player through my Home Run Derby algorithm. Yes I have one of those too! I loved betting the Home Run Derby since I was back in high school. It was always a fun event and cool to put $20 on one of the guys and hope he took me to the promised land. Usually he didn’t but it was still fun. I never lost my enjoyment of the Home Run Derby as I got older. Eventually, when I started getting serious into algorithms, July rolled around one year and I thought, I have to figure out a calculation for odds in the Home Run Derby! Back then the All-Star break included the only days in the year where there were no US sports to bet. It gave me plenty of free time. So I used the time and created my formula. As with any algorithm, it sucked at first but eventually I learned from mistakes and dialed it in. It then became a profitable algorithm in the years that followed. I often preach with any selection, while it has had success winning 8 of the last 15 years, it is not a sure thing. Your betting on this event should be pizza money at best. Just to give you something to watch and root for given there is little action elsewhere this week. Let’s dive in!
I ran this year’s field through my HRD algorithm. It calculated the field as follows:
The percentage probability is what the algorithm calculates as that player’s chance of winning the HRD. The fair moneyline is what the moneyline should be based on my probability calculated of that player winning the HRD. The current odds are the current listed odds at the time I am posting this at Bookmaker.eu/CRIS.com. The differential is simply the difference between my calculated odds for each player and what Bookmaker is offering. The green numbers means we are getting better odds than what we calculate it should be (POSITIVE VALUE!!!) and the red numbers means we are getting paid less than we should based on the player’s probability of winning (NEGATIVE VALUE!!!).
As you can see, Alonso is both the highest probability player and carries a positive value of $1.01 on the odds. He should be +305 and instead he is +406! If I had to select just one player to win this year, it would be Alonso even though Santana and Acuna have higher values. I will lean to very good value and a high percentage chance of winning if I was allowed only one play.
Regardless of the outcome, enjoy the Derby and thanks for having some fun with me on baseball math!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays